Luster · View · Launch campaign
How many people the four launch audiences contain across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and the Gold Coast, and what it costs to reach them at an effective frequency over the three-month launch flight. Desk research; figures are indicative.
| Segment | Where | Base population | In market now, per year | Likely in 1–3 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lifestyle downsizers | All four metros | ~780,000 owner households 55+ in a separate house | ~11,000 | ~225,000 |
| Southern-state upgraders | Sydney, Melbourne | ~1.15m owner households 30–54 | ~83,000 | ~172,000 |
| Sunshine State upgraders | Brisbane, Gold Coast | ~345,000 owner households 30–54 | ~23,000 | ~52,000 |
| Melbourne first-home buyers | Melbourne | ~600,000 renter households 25–39 | ~28,000 | ~85,000 |
| Total | ~145,000 | ~534,000 |
Downsizers. 3.48m people aged 55+ across the four metros (ABS Census 2021), converted to households and cut by each city's home-ownership and separate-house shares. The 1–3 year pool uses AHURI's finding that 29% of over-55s are considering downsizing. In-market comes from ATO downsizer super contributions: ~20k people a year nationally, 80% in NSW, VIC and QLD, ~70% of those assumed metro.
Upgraders. Non-first-home owner-occupier loans run at ~209k a year nationally (ABS Lending Indicators, June quarter 2026). The ABS doesn't split these by state, so we assumed NSW 30%, VIC 27% and QLD 20%, then Sydney 65% of NSW, Melbourne 75% of VIC, and Brisbane plus Gold Coast 55% of QLD. The 1–3 year pool assumes 15% of owner households aged 30–54 buy again within three years, under Westpac's finding that 44% of adults intend to buy within five years.
First-home buyers. First-home loans run at ~117k a year nationally (ABS, June quarter 2026). VIC assumed at 30% of national and Melbourne at 80% of VIC. The 1–3 year pool is three years of that run-rate.
Cross-check: settled sales in the 12 months to mid-2026 were Sydney 93,729, Melbourne 97,267, Brisbane 46,964 and Gold Coast ~16,400 (Cotality). Our ~145k in-market figure is about 57% of that, which fits once investors, regional movers and cash buyers are excluded. Sales volumes are down ~15% year on year to August 2026.
The pool is ~534,000 households, or roughly 750,000 adults once partners are counted. The major social platforms reach around 80% of Australian adults and programmatic display goes wider, so we assume 85% of the pool is reachable: ~640,000 people.
No platform lands every impression on a true downsizer or upgrader. We assume 75% of paid impressions land on someone in a segment. The rest is spill, useful for awareness but not counted here.
Published effective-frequency evidence clusters around 1–3 exposures a week, with returns falling past ~6 (Nielsen/Google; Omnicom 2026). We plan to 3+ exposures per person per month and treat 12+ as waste.
Blended CPM $8.68 (the current channel mix). Reach modelled against the 640,000 reachable people, at 75% on-target delivery, over three months.
| 3-month spend | Paid impressions | On-target impressions | Reach 1+ | Reach 3+/month | Avg monthly frequency | Read |
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